2013 Hurricane Season Forecast is (Unfortunately) a Busy One

Hurricane Hugo approaches the mainland USA
as a Category 5 with 100+ mile per hour sustained winds
in 1989

Bill Gray and Philip Klotzbach, Colorado State's pioneers of hurricane forecasting, issued his 2013 predicting that this year will be a very busy one for the Atlantic hurricane season with 18 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes (the 1981-2010 30-year averages are 12.1 named storms, 6.4 hurricanes, and 2.7 major hurricanes).  “We anticipate an above-average Atlantic basin hurricane season due to the combination of an anomalously warm tropical Atlantic and a relatively low likelihood of El Niño,”  Klotzbach and Gray write in their recently released outlook for 2013. 

Lotzbach and Gray are not alone in predicting an active season. Meteorologist Joe Bastardi of WeatherBell, writes in his 2013 hurricane season outlook that he forecasts 16 named storms, 12 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes.

Hurricane season begins June 1 and ends November 30. It can be a long, long 6 months. The good news - at least these days - is that forecasting, technology, and communications has gotten significantly better each and every year. While not perfect, most storm paths can be predicted and, therefore, necessary actions can be taken to make sure you are out of harms way.  One very important component of this forecasting ability is thanks to the 'hurricane hunters'.  These planes and the folks that fly them are built and trained to fly directly into the eye of tropical storms in order to help forecast the strength and path. In order to spend as much time as possible in the air within the storm itself these planes are stationed on the easternmost spot of US soil - St Croix in the US Virgin Islands.  The St Thomas Source writes about the squad's early return to the Virgin Islands in order to ensure that they have all the necessary equipment  (spare parts) and systems up and running prior to the actual start of the hurricane season. 

The Hurricane Hunter, the Air Force WC-130J, recently arrived on
St Croix in the US Virgin Islands 

UPDATE: May 23 - NOAA issues hurricane forecast for 2013: Based on the current and expected conditions, combined with model forecasts, NOAA estimates a 70% probability for each of the following ranges of activity during 2013: 13-20 Named Storms, 7-11 Hurricanes, 3-6 Major Hurricanes Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) range of 120%-2.05%